The financial ‘crisis’ has come as a shock to the world, including me. It probably shouldn’t have been such a shock if we had been better at counting the cost. One of Jesus’ parables is about a man who starts to build a house and runs out of money, winding up a laughingstock for not figuring out ahead of time what he could afford. This market situation is not exactly like that parable but it does raise the question of whether the folks buying financial instruments were paying attention. Worse, it raises questions of whether even those paying attention could figure out what was going on, whether those creating the financial instruments were hiding the cost or believed that counting the cost was no longer necessary because they had 'spread' the risk.
When I look at my own 401k and the mutual funds that I was and still am investing in, I have to say that I was not really well informed on what kind of risks were being taken in the bond and mortgage markets. I did not think the funds I was buying would expose me to a lot of that mortgage risk. I also think that the way the risky loans were packaged made it difficult for most investors to have any real idea of what level of risk they were buying into. To me the biggest concern about all of this is that the financial instruments had been made into instruments such that hardly anyone seems to have had a good understanding of what the risks really were. It is one thing to accept more risk for the potential of a higher payoff; it is quite another not to be able to tell how much risk you are taking. To me this is the biggest issue that is not being addressed: how to make sure that in the future there is clarity of what risks there are in various financial instruments such as ‘bundled’ mortgages.
Meanwhile, ‘buyer beware’ has certainly become the by-word in the market, so much so that no one seems to know whom to trust. That is a big part of the problem with the credit markets. There is still uncertainty about what kind of financial transaction carries what level of risk. I would have been backing away from the stock market had I realized how risky the financial markets had become. However, that risk was very well hidden until the financial markets collapsed. We have all learned that we need much more visibility to risks that are in the market, though it is not yet clear how we are going to be able to get that information in the future.
This market collapse has impacted other things that would not immediately come to mind, like our church’s capital campaign. At the start of the year, long before the financial markets imploded, our elders recommended moving forward on a huge building project. After a lot of information sharing and discussion a vote was taken to approve moving ahead on a capital campaign to raise funds for the project, though as with any large project like this there was a lot of concern about if this was the right time and if the project was too big (at $53 million it was a big project plan). Then the markets imploded right at the time for making pledge commitments. The result was $26 million in pledges and a decision to scale back to do only part of the project, doing more education and gym space but deferring the new auditorium. This seems reasonable to me at this time since we have more options on how to do multiple worship services than on how to provide education and recreation ministry space, and it avoids taking on any more mortgage debt at a time when a loan would be hard to get for a church group anyway. Some are wondering if this means that the elders were wrong in the first place, that they had mis-read God’s will. Perhaps. Or maybe this was just a process God intended to teach us some things. For one thing, during the fund raising process there was a noticeable attendance drop. This made it clear that some folks are there just for the ride and do not really intend to invest in the Lord’s work at this church. I think it may also set a good example of how to live within your means by not taking on more debt at a time when that looks like it is unwise. I think not having the auditorium to make it easy to have just 2 services (one traditional, one contemporary) may also force us to better think about how to do church differently. I was recently in Korea and visited the world’s largest church. To carry out their 7 services on Sunday, they have 3 ‘senior pastors’ that all preach to share the load. Why not start looking to that kind of model sooner that when you get 100,000 people showing up? Why not learn how to have more than one excellent preacher and have preachers learn how to share power rather than requiring a single ‘CEO’ model? I have never liked the idea of a ‘CEO’ model for the church anyway, since CEO’s tend to be autocratic and dictatorial, and those characteristics should be anathema in the church. I think we need to manage risk better in the church as well as in our 401K. We need to be more comfortable with the ‘risk’ of having more than one key preacher at a church. We also need to be sure that our financial stewardship for things like buildings sets the right example for a membership that appears to need that example desperately.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
Election Reflections
Irving Kristol once quipped that a neoconservative is a liberal who has been mugged by reality. Someone has said that a 20 year old who is conservative doesn't have a heart, and a 40+ year old who is liberal doesn't have a job. To some degree that is due to having not yet gotten mugged by reality when you are 20.
When you look back to John F. Kennedy, many of his 'liberal' supporters back then are responsible for the conservatism of today. Among the names that immediately come to mind of people who left the Democratic party because it deserted its principles as reflected in folks like JFK and Truman are these: Ronald Reagan, Richard John Neuhaus (author of The Naked Public Square and editor of First Things journal), and Zell Miller in the last election. Joe Lieberman appears to be headed in that direction now. These were supporters of JFK when he said in his inaugural, 'Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty'. They still feel that way (Reagan would if he were alive), but cannot find support for that in the Democratic party. Those who actually carry out this mission for liberty, the armed services, vote overwhelmingly conservative.
Compare that to JFK's assasin, a communist who supported Ho Chi Minh, Mao, and Fidel. Among others who supported those same leftists were current Democrat mainstays like Jane Fonda, Barbara Streisand, and most of Hollywood (if old enough to remember JFK) and the mainstream media. They never quite came to grips with reality since the world they inhabit is a make-believe world. These would never meet any challenge, support any friend, or accept any hardship to assure freedom. They would abandon Israel to its foes just as readily as Iraq. They do their best to impose censorship on talk radio, prevent crisis pregnancy centers from providing an opposing view to abortion, and happily carry out eugenics as did Mao. Despite their kinship to JFK's assasin, they nonetheless claim to be his heirs. If you care to read more on this, see the First Things web site and a blog from May 5, 2006 discussing an article in Commentary magazine entitled 'Lee Harvey Oswald and the Liberal Crack-Up'. Just do a search on 'mugged by reality'. The conclusion of that article is that neoconservatives have much more in common with JFK than today's Democratic party does. Zell Miller reached that same conclusion 4 years ago.
The failure of this election was a failure of ideas. Obama had only to run against Bush, so he did not have to defend his ideas. McCain simply failed to make the ideas the issue. The financial system collapse then overshadowed everything else. However, the ideas of Obama's party will be the problem that we all have to live with even though that never got adequate discussion in the campaign. This would indicate that, for the moment, the Republicans abandoned conservative ideas as well.
As some Jews, like Michael Medved, have realized, conservatives (and especially conservative Christians) are Israel's best friend; conservatives are also freedom's best friends. Those in the Democratic party are relativism's best friends. Since Obama has never actually done anything except run for office, let us hope and pray that when confronted with the real world in the oval office he will quickly get mugged by reality.
When you look back to John F. Kennedy, many of his 'liberal' supporters back then are responsible for the conservatism of today. Among the names that immediately come to mind of people who left the Democratic party because it deserted its principles as reflected in folks like JFK and Truman are these: Ronald Reagan, Richard John Neuhaus (author of The Naked Public Square and editor of First Things journal), and Zell Miller in the last election. Joe Lieberman appears to be headed in that direction now. These were supporters of JFK when he said in his inaugural, 'Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty'. They still feel that way (Reagan would if he were alive), but cannot find support for that in the Democratic party. Those who actually carry out this mission for liberty, the armed services, vote overwhelmingly conservative.
Compare that to JFK's assasin, a communist who supported Ho Chi Minh, Mao, and Fidel. Among others who supported those same leftists were current Democrat mainstays like Jane Fonda, Barbara Streisand, and most of Hollywood (if old enough to remember JFK) and the mainstream media. They never quite came to grips with reality since the world they inhabit is a make-believe world. These would never meet any challenge, support any friend, or accept any hardship to assure freedom. They would abandon Israel to its foes just as readily as Iraq. They do their best to impose censorship on talk radio, prevent crisis pregnancy centers from providing an opposing view to abortion, and happily carry out eugenics as did Mao. Despite their kinship to JFK's assasin, they nonetheless claim to be his heirs. If you care to read more on this, see the First Things web site and a blog from May 5, 2006 discussing an article in Commentary magazine entitled 'Lee Harvey Oswald and the Liberal Crack-Up'. Just do a search on 'mugged by reality'. The conclusion of that article is that neoconservatives have much more in common with JFK than today's Democratic party does. Zell Miller reached that same conclusion 4 years ago.
The failure of this election was a failure of ideas. Obama had only to run against Bush, so he did not have to defend his ideas. McCain simply failed to make the ideas the issue. The financial system collapse then overshadowed everything else. However, the ideas of Obama's party will be the problem that we all have to live with even though that never got adequate discussion in the campaign. This would indicate that, for the moment, the Republicans abandoned conservative ideas as well.
As some Jews, like Michael Medved, have realized, conservatives (and especially conservative Christians) are Israel's best friend; conservatives are also freedom's best friends. Those in the Democratic party are relativism's best friends. Since Obama has never actually done anything except run for office, let us hope and pray that when confronted with the real world in the oval office he will quickly get mugged by reality.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Concrete, Steel, and the Gospel
There are a number of things that forcefully strike you as you spend time in Seoul, Korea. On the road one rarely sees a Japanese or American car, but the Hyundai and Kia and Daewoo vehicles are everywhere. Along the river that bisects the city are more bridges than you can keep count of as you drive, and most of them have more than 6 lanes of traffic. The investment in infrastructure like bridges and subways and roads and utilities is enormous and is continuing. To an engineer like me, these things jump out at you immediately.
Even more dramatic, though, is the skyline. While the tallest building in Seoul is 63 stories, certainly not a threat to the now several 100+ story buildings scattered around the world, still the skyline grabs your attention. High rise buildings are everywhere, and the apartment/condo buildings with the resultant population density are amazing. There are literally thousands of 20-30 story apartment buildings in this metro area and many more being constructed. Contruction cranes dot the skyline in every direction. In this metro area of about 20 million, there are hundreds if not thousands of complexes with many buildings, each of which have 10 -20 or more floors and would themselves make a small city. Each has an underground garage for the cars, though the subway system is crowded as well. The amount of concrete and steel already in place as well as under construction makes it easy to see why so much steel, concrete and other construction materials are flowing so strongly to Asia.
I suppose it is this population density that helps explain how a church of 800,000 like Yoido Full Gospel Church can come to be, and there are now several other churches that are over 100,000 each in Seoul. The enormous housing complexes can often house 20,000 or more on a rather small footprint of land. I would expect that a couple of million people live within a very few miles of the Yoido church. While I am not at all used to living this way, this density does seem to foster the development of churches with great impact.
After a week in Seoul, I am VERY ready to return to Roswell, GA, and my suburban house where the population density is a small fraction of Seoul though the traffic might make you think otherwise. Being constantly in a crowd and a traffic jam does weigh on me after a while. I guess I have enough of the ‘country boy’ in me to become stressed by the crowds and hurry when it never lets up. Still, I am amazed at the growth, the infrastructure, and the way the gospel is getting out in Seoul.
Even more dramatic, though, is the skyline. While the tallest building in Seoul is 63 stories, certainly not a threat to the now several 100+ story buildings scattered around the world, still the skyline grabs your attention. High rise buildings are everywhere, and the apartment/condo buildings with the resultant population density are amazing. There are literally thousands of 20-30 story apartment buildings in this metro area and many more being constructed. Contruction cranes dot the skyline in every direction. In this metro area of about 20 million, there are hundreds if not thousands of complexes with many buildings, each of which have 10 -20 or more floors and would themselves make a small city. Each has an underground garage for the cars, though the subway system is crowded as well. The amount of concrete and steel already in place as well as under construction makes it easy to see why so much steel, concrete and other construction materials are flowing so strongly to Asia.
I suppose it is this population density that helps explain how a church of 800,000 like Yoido Full Gospel Church can come to be, and there are now several other churches that are over 100,000 each in Seoul. The enormous housing complexes can often house 20,000 or more on a rather small footprint of land. I would expect that a couple of million people live within a very few miles of the Yoido church. While I am not at all used to living this way, this density does seem to foster the development of churches with great impact.
After a week in Seoul, I am VERY ready to return to Roswell, GA, and my suburban house where the population density is a small fraction of Seoul though the traffic might make you think otherwise. Being constantly in a crowd and a traffic jam does weigh on me after a while. I guess I have enough of the ‘country boy’ in me to become stressed by the crowds and hurry when it never lets up. Still, I am amazed at the growth, the infrastructure, and the way the gospel is getting out in Seoul.
The World's Largest Church
While I was in Seoul I had the opportunity to attend worship at the world’s largest church on a Sunday morning. The church, Yoido Full Gospel Church, began shortly after the Korean War in a makeshift army surplus tent with about 5 people. It now has something over 800,000 members across 150 satellite campuses. The main campus is still in the Yoido section of town and has over 100,000 or so attendance on a given Sunday. That includes about 7 worship services for adults and Sunday School for the children during worship. There are about 30,000 children in that number. Each service seats about 12,000 adults. The church is located in a downtown area and is just a few blocks from the seat of government, the National Assembly building. The church owns 5 large buildings downtown, including one for running their daily newspaper which has a readership of about one million. It is, needless to say, quite an operation.
The crowd begins assembling outside the church quite a bit before the worship time arrives. Once the prior service ends, those inside the building all leave so the flow of people is one-way. Then the crowd for the next service streams in, many of them literally running into the auditorium. The crowd turns over very quickly with 24,000 people (12,000 going out and 12,000 going in) handled in about 20 minutes. Besides the folks running into the sanctuary, perhaps the most unusual part of the service to western non-charismatic ears is the prayer time when all 12,000 pray aloud at once. Not in unison, but everyone praying their own prayers aloud at once. I had been used to that as a child in a small church, but not in huge church. It definitely grabs your attention!
The sermon was on how we Christians of all people should be demonstrating hope despite the financial meltdown going on around us. It was in fact a very encouraging sermon and a strong reminder that our hope needs to focused on ultimate things not on our circumstances.
After the service there was a reception for foreigners since the church has lots of visitors. The church is built around home cell groups and that is where the members minister to each other. Those home groups occur any day of the week. The church also operates Prayer Mountain about an hour north of Seoul and not far from the Demilitarized Zone. They have 24-hour prayer there as well as retreats and a center for rehabilitation for both youth and those with addictions. They run buses several times a day, every day, to Prayer Mountain.
It was a very interesting visit, and one has to marvel at the impact they have had in Korea. Christianity has taken hold there in the past 50 years. Korea has a historic of Buddhist and Confucianist religion but is now about 30% Christian, which is much more than any of it’s neighboring Asian countries. This church has been a significant part of that growth, with about 1 in 20 residents of Seoul belonging to this church. They claim that about 80% of the members tithe, which an amazing difference from the roughly 14% in American evangelical churches. That certainly reflects that this is not just a social gathering!
Despite this impact I admit to still having some reservations about such enormous churches. Clearly they have done things a small church could not do, such as the major daily newspaper and Prayer Mountain. However, they still have needed 150 satellite churches, each with a pastor. It seems more like a denomination than a single church in that regard. Yet, the impact has been great and one has to rejoice at the way they are making a difference in that country!
The crowd begins assembling outside the church quite a bit before the worship time arrives. Once the prior service ends, those inside the building all leave so the flow of people is one-way. Then the crowd for the next service streams in, many of them literally running into the auditorium. The crowd turns over very quickly with 24,000 people (12,000 going out and 12,000 going in) handled in about 20 minutes. Besides the folks running into the sanctuary, perhaps the most unusual part of the service to western non-charismatic ears is the prayer time when all 12,000 pray aloud at once. Not in unison, but everyone praying their own prayers aloud at once. I had been used to that as a child in a small church, but not in huge church. It definitely grabs your attention!
The sermon was on how we Christians of all people should be demonstrating hope despite the financial meltdown going on around us. It was in fact a very encouraging sermon and a strong reminder that our hope needs to focused on ultimate things not on our circumstances.
After the service there was a reception for foreigners since the church has lots of visitors. The church is built around home cell groups and that is where the members minister to each other. Those home groups occur any day of the week. The church also operates Prayer Mountain about an hour north of Seoul and not far from the Demilitarized Zone. They have 24-hour prayer there as well as retreats and a center for rehabilitation for both youth and those with addictions. They run buses several times a day, every day, to Prayer Mountain.
It was a very interesting visit, and one has to marvel at the impact they have had in Korea. Christianity has taken hold there in the past 50 years. Korea has a historic of Buddhist and Confucianist religion but is now about 30% Christian, which is much more than any of it’s neighboring Asian countries. This church has been a significant part of that growth, with about 1 in 20 residents of Seoul belonging to this church. They claim that about 80% of the members tithe, which an amazing difference from the roughly 14% in American evangelical churches. That certainly reflects that this is not just a social gathering!
Despite this impact I admit to still having some reservations about such enormous churches. Clearly they have done things a small church could not do, such as the major daily newspaper and Prayer Mountain. However, they still have needed 150 satellite churches, each with a pastor. It seems more like a denomination than a single church in that regard. Yet, the impact has been great and one has to rejoice at the way they are making a difference in that country!
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