Marriage in the News

Today's USA Today included an op/ed piece about how secularism is saving marriage. Since I commented recently that 'marriage is on shaky ground' in the post about grace and the radical idea that is marriage, I thought I should comment on that article. In addition, the current issue of First Things (the October issue: yes, the magazine gurus have decreed that it is now October even though it is only September 14) includes and article titled 'What does Woman Want', which goes well beyond Mel Gibson's take on that.

First of all let's look at the USA Today nonsense: either Oliver Thomas, who wrote the article, simply doesn't understand statistics or he is living in a land of make believe. Here is a broader view of the statistics: yes, the divorce rate did drop to the lowest rate as a % of marriages since 1970. Unfortunately, several other trends have been going on for a number of years as well including:

• The total % of unmarried women has moved steadily upward since 1960, from about 30% to over 40%. In 1960 the number of unmarried women was about half the number of married women; now the numbers are nearing equivalence and if the current trend continues, unmarried women will pass the number of married women in a decade or so.
• The average age of marriage is increasing (up to 27 for men, versus 22 back when I got married)
• The number of unmarried couple households has increased 10x since 1960

So how does this translate to secularism saving marriage? It doesn't. What it does imply is that fewer and fewer people are getting married, and those that do so marry later. This would more likely imply that those most committed to the idea of marriage are the ones getting married since the stigma of being unmarried, either alone or co-habiting, is now less. When the people most committed to marriage as a concept are the ones getting married, wouldn't you expect lower divorce rates? I would. And is there any evidence that the folks most committed to the idea of marriage are the more secular, non-religious folks? None.

To look at the long term trends in marriage statistics, visit www.biblenews1.com/marriage/marriags.htm . They have plotted the data from the U.S. Census Bureau, so this is not some survey skewed by the sampling plan. It is just census data, conveniently plotted. One thing you will note is that in 1982-83, during the last recession of similar severity to the current one, the divorce rate also dropped. There have also been several articles about how hard times force marriage partners to delay divorce and often to come together as a team.

So what is to be made of the drop in divorce rates? My opinion is that in light of the long term marriage statistics and the current recession combined, it was entirely predictable and has absolutely nothing to do with secularism. Quite the opposite.

However, there are some secular forces that are contributing to the long term negative trends in marriage, which the First Things article discusses. More on that next time.